Is Low Earth Orbit the Next Strategic Chokepoint?
Low Earth orbit is evolving rapidly, and the strategic implications of who builds, governs, and scales it are only beginning to emerge
Low Earth orbit has quietly become one of the most consequential arenas of 21st-century power. What was once dominated by scientific experimentation and a narrow set of military missions, has now evolved into a dense layer of infrastructure supporting global communications, intelligence collection, navigation, and economic activity. Its transformation reflects a broader shift in how space is used: not as a distant frontier, but as an extension of terrestrial systems upon which modern societies depend.
This change is driven by declining launch costs, rapid advances in satellite capability, and the rise of large commercial constellations. Together, these trends have collapsed the boundary between civilian and strategic space activity, turning LEO into a domain where commercial decisions increasingly shape national security outcomes.
LEO as Critical Infrastructure
LEO-based platforms now underpin functions that were once the exclusive domain of state-run assets. Commercial satellite constellations provide persistent communications, real-time imagery, and data services that support military operations, disaster response, and civilian connectivity. Their integration into defense planning has demonstrated that privately operated systems can deliver resilience, scale, and adaptability that traditional architectures struggle to match.
As reliance on these systems deepens, LEO shifts from a supporting role to a foundational one. Disruption in orbit no longer represents a marginal risk, but a systemic vulnerability with cascading effects across security, economic stability, and governance.
Scale and the Competitive Environment
The strategic balance in LEO is increasingly shaped by scale. China’s approach emphasizes rapid deployment, dense constellations, and centralized coordination between state, military, and industrial actors. Plans to deploy tens of thousands of satellites over the coming decade reflect an effort to dominate orbital real estate and normalize Chinese systems as default infrastructure in emerging markets.
This model echoes earlier patterns in global telecommunications, where subsidized deployment and long-term pricing strategies reshaped international dependence. In space, such dynamics carry added weight, as infrastructure choices influence not only market access, but data flows, security alignments, and technological standards.
Regulatory Capacity as Strategic Power
Competitiveness in LEO depends as much on regulatory performance as on technological innovation. Licensing timelines, approval frameworks, and procedural clarity directly affect how quickly systems can be deployed and adapted. Rules designed for a slower, state-centric space environment increasingly struggle to accommodate the pace and diversity of modern orbital activity.
Regulatory inertia functions as a strategic constraint. Predictable, rules-based processes enable scale, investment, and iteration, while uncertainty introduces friction that competitors can exploit. In this context, regulatory institutions are no longer neutral administrators; they are active determinants of national position in space.
Spectrum and the Architecture of Access
Radiofrequency spectrum sits at the core of LEO functionality. Satellite systems require reliable, globally coordinated spectrum access to operate at scale, making governance frameworks a critical battleground. Legacy interference rules and fragmented allocation regimes limit system efficiency and constrain future expansion.
As international negotiations approach key decision points, spectrum policy increasingly operates as industrial strategy by other means. Influence within technical bodies shapes which systems thrive, which falter, and whose standards become global defaults. Control over spectrum governance thus translates into long-term structural advantage.
Resilience, Risk, and Orbital Stability
Security considerations in LEO are shifting away from protection toward resilience. Proliferated constellations, distributed across orbits and operators, complicate targeting and enable rapid recovery from disruption. This architectural shift reflects an acceptance that space systems will remain contested and vulnerable.
At the same time, risks are multiplying. Cyber intrusion, kinetic anti-satellite capabilities, and the accumulation of orbital debris threaten system reliability and sustainability. The challenge lies in managing these risks without constraining the innovation and scale that underpin resilience in the first place.
The Strategic Stakes
Leadership in LEO now shapes outcomes far beyond space itself. Infrastructure dominance affects economic competitiveness, military effectiveness, and the ability to shape the rules governing future activity. The contest is not simply about satellites, but about who defines access, standards, and norms in a domain that underlies the digital and security architecture of the modern world.
Sources
- Pearl, Matt, and Lauryn Williams. “Keeping China Grounded: Ensuring Long-Term U.S. Tech Leadership in Low Earth Orbit.” Panel Discussion. December 2, 2025.
